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id="n1ilkkl" class="arti" > <p> <span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; line-height: 32px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: inherit;">進(jìn)入</span><span style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; line-height: 32px; text-align: justify;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; line-height: 32px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: inherit;">月，隨著外圍局勢緊張，美聯(lián)儲多位高官都提到了關(guān)稅對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響。盡管他們基本全都支持保持現(xiàn)有的“耐心與觀望”政策立場不變，但這位今年票委的警告言辭最為嚴(yán)厲。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;">2019<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">年</span>FOMC<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">票委、美國波士頓聯(lián)儲主席羅森格倫（</span>Eric Rosengren<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">）在</span>5<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">月</span>21<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">日周二參加紐約經(jīng)濟(jì)俱樂部的午餐演講時(shí)指出，<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: bolder;">貿(mào)易摩擦是目前“突出的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”，也是令美聯(lián)儲對利率政策保持耐心的重要理由之一，</span>在這種不確定性得到更多解決之前，他不認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)加息或降息。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">他重申了對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心，認(rèn)為目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)“看起來相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)”，更廣泛的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)“似乎比今年年初更加穩(wěn)固”。市場共識和他的預(yù)測都表明，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將比去年溫和放緩，仍足以推動(dòng)失業(yè)率進(jìn)一步下滑，而“緊俏的勞動(dòng)力市場是預(yù)期通脹漲回美聯(lián)儲目標(biāo)水平的原因之一”。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">值得注意的是，除了像其他美聯(lián)儲同事一樣警告貿(mào)易摩擦對經(jīng)濟(jì)前景和市場波動(dòng)性的負(fù)面影響，羅森格倫格外點(diǎn)出了關(guān)稅對通脹上行的潛在驅(qū)動(dòng)。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: bolder;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">他認(rèn)為，“持續(xù)的貿(mào)易關(guān)</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">稅可能令通脹加速回歸美聯(lián)儲</span>2%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: bolder;">的目標(biāo)”。</span>盡管在當(dāng)前趨緊的勞動(dòng)力市場中，很難區(qū)分與衡量關(guān)稅和其他因素對通脹的影響，“但長期運(yùn)行的關(guān)稅可能會(huì)推高通脹，并成為就業(yè)市場的更大影響因素，美聯(lián)儲不會(huì)坐視不管。”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">另據(jù)《華爾街日報(bào)》觀察，羅森格倫反對美國總統(tǒng)特朗普堅(jiān)稱的“美國不用為關(guān)稅買單”：</span></p> <blockquote style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 40px; padding: 20px; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); position: relative; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; line-height: 30px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif; background: rgb(242, 243, 244);"> <p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">羅森格倫表示，美國關(guān)稅是有效的進(jìn)口稅，關(guān)稅將導(dǎo)致美國進(jìn)口商品的價(jià)格上漲，因此關(guān)稅對美國國內(nèi)的通貨膨脹很重要。如果美國的關(guān)稅是廣泛且長期的，對市場和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響將會(huì)更大。</span></p> <p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">關(guān)稅對經(jīng)濟(jì)和通脹的影響有多大，取決于關(guān)稅是否被延長，以及消費(fèi)者能否找到更便宜的國內(nèi)產(chǎn)品來替代。盡管他沒有量化長期關(guān)稅可能帶來的通脹上升程度，但表示，<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: bolder; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">如果持久的貿(mào)易關(guān)稅導(dǎo)致通脹持續(xù)上行，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致美聯(lián)儲在貨幣政策方面的回應(yīng)。</span></span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;"><a style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(22, 119, 217); text-decoration: none; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(22, 119, 217); padding-bottom: 4px; background-color: transparent;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">華爾街見聞曾提到</span></a><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">，一周前，羅森格倫也公開發(fā)表了類似的觀點(diǎn)。他當(dāng)時(shí)稱，現(xiàn)在就評估由貿(mào)易摩擦升級而帶來的影響，還為時(shí)過早。全面影響將在</span>6<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">月</span>1<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">日之后才出現(xiàn)，但他坦言，如果新的關(guān)稅持續(xù)下去，最終可能會(huì)拖累美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，并導(dǎo)致更高的通脹率。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾本周一在公開演講中雖然沒有談及貨幣政策，</span><a style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(22, 119, 217); text-decoration: none; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(22, 119, 217); padding-bottom: 4px; background-color: transparent;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">但重申了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)向好</span></a><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">，認(rèn)為企業(yè)債高企尚未對金融穩(wěn)定構(gòu)成系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，美國也沒有出現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)泡沫。不過他也指出，如果美國企業(yè)債在歷史相對低息的環(huán)境下再度大幅增長，可能顯著提升企業(yè)的脆弱程度。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">此外，美聯(lián)儲二號人物、副主席克拉里達(dá)，以及三號人物、紐約聯(lián)儲主席威廉姆斯，都在近期頻繁發(fā)言，力挺美聯(lián)儲暫時(shí)“對利率政策保持耐心”的立場，不認(rèn)為應(yīng)加息、也不建議降息：</span></p> <blockquote style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 40px; padding: 20px; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); position: relative; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; line-height: 30px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif; background: rgb(242, 243, 244);"> <p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify;"><a style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(22, 119, 217); text-decoration: none; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(22, 119, 217); padding-bottom: 4px; margin-top: 0px; background-color: transparent;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">克拉里達(dá)重申美國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢良好</span></a><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">，正處于或者接近實(shí)現(xiàn)美聯(lián)儲最大化就業(yè)和穩(wěn)定物價(jià)的雙重目標(biāo)。不僅美國通脹正在接近</span>2%<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">的央行目標(biāo)，關(guān)鍵的通脹預(yù)期也錨定在</span>2%<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px;">。同時(shí)，美國聯(lián)邦基金利率已處于預(yù)估的中性利率區(qū)間之內(nèi)。</span></p> <p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px;"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(22, 119, 217); text-decoration: none; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(22, 119, 217); padding-bottom: 4px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: transparent;">威廉姆斯認(rèn)為</a>，目前美國經(jīng)濟(jì)處于非常好的位置，美國貨幣政策也正適宜。我們正在迎來較低的全球增長和低利率趨勢，投資者認(rèn)為全球低通脹是</span>“<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">新常態(tài)</span>”<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px;">而非失常。與鮑威爾和克拉里達(dá)不同的是，<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: bolder; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">美聯(lián)儲“三把手”公開批評關(guān)稅政策，認(rèn)為更多的關(guān)稅可能會(huì)對美國通脹產(chǎn)生重大影響，并抑制美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長</span>。美國消費(fèi)者價(jià)格明年可能提升零點(diǎn)幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，供應(yīng)鏈也受到?jīng)_擊。</span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">與美聯(lián)儲高官認(rèn)為今年不降息甚至重新加息的態(tài)度截然相反，市場參與者再次"響應(yīng)白宮的號召”，堅(jiān)定地計(jì)價(jià)入年底之前至少降息一次的可能性。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">芝加哥商交所</span>CME<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">根據(jù)聯(lián)邦基金利率期貨的交易算出，今年</span>12<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">月</span>FOMC<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">會(huì)議上降息一次的概率接近</span>70%<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">，一個(gè)月前僅為</span>40%<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">。而</span>5<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">月初外圍風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大的時(shí)候，</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">市場出于對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的擔(dān)憂，曾預(yù)期</span>10<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">月</span>FOMC<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">會(huì)議上就會(huì)宣布降息；今日這一概率重新降至</span>50%<span lang="ZH-CN" style="box-sizing: inherit;">以下。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; text-align: justify; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Helvetica, 'Pingfang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;"><img data-v-0793696e="" data-v-7bf67f5a="" src="https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c426d163-8dbd-4d1b-99d1-aa14c35b154c.jpg" 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